Semi-finals - 29th November, and match previews

Hi all, this week features the semi-finals, with the Dojo vs Slamtown game on Field 1, and the Bugs vs Cobras game on Field 2. As far as the night goes, I'll be getting there nice and early, and lights will be on at 6.45.

Field 3 will be featuring a match up between Heroes and Blitz, organised by them. Good to see people are keen for more high level Ultimate, even at this stage of the season!

Match Preview: although I love talking about Ultimate, whatever I have to say is never as valuable or interesting as the key stakeholders of BPL - you. That's why I've asked the Captains of each Semi-Final team to provide a match preview. For interest's sake, I asked them to comment on the OTHER semi-final. Thanks guys, you've done a great job.

Slamtown Flatball Club (1), vs Dojo Mojo (4)

Mat Ryan

Slamtown Flatball Club v Dojo Mojo (not sure if those are the full, correct ‘official’ names anymore … but they were once-upon-a-time…)

Well, the season has twisted and turned and thrown up some crazy and unforeseen results but in the end it’s the 4 most experienced teams who have made it through to the finals.

Whilst each of those top 4 teams have some rookies on board, they all have a much greater proportion of elite, experienced players.  Which probably doesn’t come as a surprise to anyone.  What is clear is the jump in competitive standard in the league this season.  The fact that Dojo squeaked into the finals by the tiniest possible margin is testament to the strength of the playerbase across the league.

The 1 v 4 semi sees the ladder leaders SLAMTOWN up against the carryover champs, DOJO in a mouth-watering matchup.  Whilst 1 v 4 is technically the ‘easier’ semi, I have a sense that Dojo will find something extra to bring to this game and that they will battle it out to the very end. 

Slamtown are undoubtedly the strongest team of the season with a roster that contains only a few gaps:  Gref is in exceptional form and probably the premier Tall currently playing in Qld, based on his run, acceleration and willingness to layout.  But he’s serviced well by a handling group who have great capability to retain possession and to huck effectively whenever the opportunity presents.  Abra and aL are the main handling weapons.  Abra’s strength is his big southpaw backhand huck from a wide pivot.  aL Don complements this with an equally big Natural forehand huck and between the 2 of them they have a powerful arsenal to service their deeps i Gref and Kalin.  If Dojo can control this they’ll go a long way to controlling the game and I’d suggest that a righthanded force all night long would be a sensible Defensive strategy to do this.  Slamtown will miss Stef as a 3^rd genuine hucking handler, and they will have to substitute some part timers to fill the gap.  But Slamtown’s chief strength is really Chris Kocher who blew onto the scene like cyclone Yasi and seems more or less unstoppable in whatever position he chooses to play, probably mostly downfield.  Dojo will have to find someone to contain him if they are to have any chance at all … perhaps time for Das to step up?  Or perhaps Cola will recover sufficiently to take the field.  He’s one of the few Dojo players with the speed and athleticism required to apply any pressure to the best athlete in the BPL.

In summary Slamtown are young, fast, hungry and extremely talented, and what they “may” lack in depth across their line they more than make up for with raw talent at the top end.  Their structures and strategy aren’t particularly coherent.  They put up jammy hucks and Gref and Kalin or one of those Stone boys bring them down.  They don’t have the best team plan, but they don’t really need one.  They have enough individual guns to over-run their opponents with brute force.

The upside for Dojo is that they have the next best deep roster in the game with Pete Allen, Wallsy, Leon, Flan and Ryan Black all tall and all extremely athletic.  If the Slammers put up anything a bit loose those Dojo deep defenders will be sure to clean it up.  Gref and Kalin might be good, but they wont have it all their own way.  In Dojo’s favour they probably have a slightly more consistent handling line with Andy Lankowski, Leon, Watto, Sean Flan all very experienced players who rarely take a bad option.  They can break force, throw long and move the disc around the field with very conservative Offense.  An obvious question is why are they fighting it out as the 4^th place semi finalist if they are so good?  The answer probably has something to do with the disruptions of new daddyhood and the passage of time.  Dojo haven’t had the best season:  Their roster has been up and down and they’ve lacked consistency.  They’ve lost games due to player absenteeism and motivational issues, and they’ve been shunted down the ladder as a result.  Their chief strength has traditionally been a great team plan, most obviously their Puppy Fence D and high percentage O, but this has been undermined by their inconsistent roster.  They aren’t as young or as sharp as they once were, and the standard of the BPL has risen across the board to genuinely challenge them.  Their record against the Heroes, and their game last week in particular, is proof of this inconsistency.  On paper they should have smashed, but instead they took the last 2 points to salvage an awkward, stumbling draw.

My money is definitely on SFC, but Dojo are the most likely BPL team, on paper, to knock them over and I predict a close finish.  If Dojo can contain the hucks and force SFC to move the disc around the field, and then sustain marker pressure, they’ll generate turns.  They’ll benefit if there’s any wind, but the forecast doesn’t look helpful.  In the end it’s up to them to win it.  SFC wont give it to them.

Liam Gillions (wetnose)

The traditional late season clash between the Slammers and the Kensei has come 1 week earlier than usual, with Dojo limping into the semis in 4th spot on the back on the last gasp draw with Heroes, while the boys in Orange have stormed into the semis on the back on 8? straight wins. But what does that all count for now? Nothing. Everyone is back to an even keel, and 2 wins now will see any of the top 4 teams take the title.

The Dojo have been here plenty of times before. They haven't missed the semi finals in many years (ever?) and while they usually sit atop the table at this point, they will be confident of doing it from anywhere. They bring probably the best all-round team into this finals series. While they may lack as many high level stars as some of the other teams, they certainly have the strongest bottom end as well and rely on everyone across the board to make an equal contribution to get the W's.
Slamtown are red hot, and are rightly favourites for both this game and to take the big one. With probably the most "superstars" of any team in the BPL, they rely mainly on these key players to work the disc up, and then have their young guns (and old Kevvy) to finish things off at the other end. The loss of their captain is a shame, and possibly their game against Blitz showed some vulnerabilities, but at the end of the day there is enough experience, skill & star power for them to take this one. Also the fact that they have the most points scored as well as the least points conceded should not go unnoticed.
Big game, tight game, and really anyones game. Slamtown to take it just.
Prediction: Slamtown 15-12.

Northside Cobras (2), vs Moreton Bay Buggers (3)

Stefan Rappazzo (Mayor)
After a long season of battle, 4 teams have emerged to fight out the final two phases of competition, before one can be crowned as champion.

This weeks semi Final match up's feature the red hot Slamtown Flatball Club facing off against the defending Champion, and Grand Finals nemesis Dojo Mojo.

But this review is going to cover the other side of the bracket.... The Cobras vs. The Buggs

The Cobras - A team of timber, talent, and tenacity.  A team that lacks in consistency from season to season... and sometime even within a season, that has had enough talent to be premieres for the last few seasons, but haven't been able to string it together over the course of an entire season.... until now?  The Cobras were the talk of the town at the start of the season, winning 5 in a row, and convincingly.  They faltered against SFC twice, which is to be expected, and their only other blemish came at the hands of wooden spooners, (and rules and spirit guru's) UQ Lovers.  Holding the top seed for much of the season, the Cobras dropped to their current #2 spot in week 10 after their second bout with Slamtown.

When the Cobras are at their best, they are a handful for anyone.  Brian, Dan and Troy all pose as difficult mach ups with their abilities to move from solid handling positions to lethal deep strikes.  ManBaby Livingstone also falls into that category, and Reece would like to... he's just not tall enough.  Wetnose is very much the gel that has brought this team back to winning form, and his leadership could be the difference in their final run.

The Buggs - A team of aging legends paired with some fresh young legs.  Across the board, the buggs must be the most experienced team in the league (or maybe the Dojo)... regardless, their offensive unit has come a long way in staying patient, and composed and slowly working their way into opposing endzones.  Defensively, you'd think the Buggs would be an easier team to pick on (with a few old legs) but they have the second best goals against in the league, and are able to work well in a zone or man situation.  The Buggs had a horrible start to the season, but found form when it mattered, and now enter the playoffs with a very hot record in their last 6 games.

It will be up to the veterans to use their experience to will the Buggs through to the Grand Final, a place they were once very familiar with.  Buzz and Mat will need to set the tone behind the disc, and Trev and Jangles will need to carry much of the up field momentum.  Defensively, TJ and Tim Webb are going to need to establish themselves as shut down defenders, and the Buggs will give themselves a chance.

How it all Matches Up:  The Cobras certainly look the stronger team, winning both match ups this season, and having the better record.... but only winning by a point in the last meeting only 3 weeks ago.
The Buggs will be hoping for a bit of weather to favour their veteran savvy, and in order to employ a zone that will undermine the team speed advantage that the Cobras have.  However, even if they can overcome the team speed, they are still outmatch in team height, and I think that Buggs will have their hands full in any weather.  The Buggs will want to get out to an early lead, as they'll really be making it hard on themselves trying to come from behind the snakes.  If Buggs get an early break... this game will be one worth watching.  I expect a close and chippy game, and expect to see the Cobras getting through to their second Grand Final appearance.

Prove me wrong Buggers.

Stephen Cameron (Sensei)

There’s only one thing anyone can say for certain about a Bugs/Cobras showdown: Grudge Match.

I dunno why it is so (well actually I do but it’s much more interesting to invent other hypotheses), but whenever the young-punks-in-black-who-were-going-to-change-their-team-name-this-season-but-didn’t come up against the white-shorts-touting Bugs, things seem to get a little bit tense.

And of course that’s what makes a Cobra v Bug showdown so damn entertaining to watch. There is simply nothing funnier than seeing [name withheld] lose it at [name withheld] after a bogus travel/pick/stall/strip call when it’s 12-12 and Golden Goal. In fact even if Dojo hadn’t managed to save a last-ditch draw against the really very deserving Heroes team last week to earn our spot in the finals, I would seriously be coming down to AJFC just to see the Bug/Cobra extravaganza. Sadly, at this rate I’ll have to settle for seeing their second half only after we’ve finished owning SFC with half an hour to spare before time cap...

Unlike the easy win Dojo will have over Slamtown, the outcome of the Cobras/Bugs game is going to be purely down to which team manages to stay on top of their own game for the longest. Cobras are very, very dangerous when they’re on a roll but can just as easily fall to pieces mid-game. Meanwhile Bugs have experience, tenacity (understatement?!) and the World’s Greatest Thrower making every long cut a genuine scoring option, yet they have also seriously misfired on a worryingly frequent basis this season. Aaargh!

So...............considering all of that I’m tipping the aforementioned 12-12 Golden Goal hero/zero climactic finish to a hard and frequently fiery stoush.